Assessment: Bitcoin at ~$68.8k is in a mid-cycle correction driven by mechanical deleveraging — a liquidity air-pocket, not a trend-following selloff. MVRV Z-Score at ~0.70 signals the profit overhang is wrung out; ~9.3M BTC sits underwater (highest since Jan 2023), meaning remaining selling pressure is increasingly forced (liquidations, risk limits, ETF redemptions, miner cash needs). STH Cost Basis at ~$98.4k is the overhead ceiling — any rally into ~$80k–$98k meets dense supply from underwater buyers. LTH Realized Price at ~$40.45k anchors the deep cycle floor. Downside is increasingly asymmetric: forced selling ends abruptly if liquidity improves or a credible sovereign bid materializes.
Strategic Outlook: Macro plumbing is the dominant driver. ON RRP is exhausted — TGA swings now hit reserves directly....
Key Levels: $60k–$65k: tactical decision zone (sovereign narrative + put gravity). $80k–$98k: overhead supply band. $98.4k: STH cost-basis ceiling — reclaim = trend confirmation. $40.45k: LTH realized price / deep structural floor.
Bullish triggers: TGA drawdown; short squeeze on negative funding; BOJ stabilization; spot-led reclaim of $90k+ with visible accumulation.
Bearish triggers: JGB carry unwind escalation; Feb–Mar rollover duration shock; sub-$60k gamma cascade; miner capitulation near production cost.
