Assessment: Bitcoin at $112,360 is in a healthy mid-cycle grind, not a speculative blowoff. The recent $125.7k ATH followed by a $19B liquidation and dip under $110k got absorbed without breaking anything—institutional buyers showed up. On-chain metrics confirm we're nowhere near cooked: MVRV Z-Score sits at 2.0-2.5 (tops happen above 4-6), long-term holders aren't selling (VDD under 1.0), and the LTH price multiple of 3.07x has room before the 3.8-4.5x danger zone. ETFs are the story: 621k BTC accumulated since launch, with the last five days adding $3.4B as GBTC outflows finally flipped positive. Global liquidity is supportive—M2 growing ~5% YoY, stablecoins at record $252B, gold/silver hitting ATHs, and the dollar weak. The Fed is cutting gradually while keeping things less restrictive, not loose, which is the goldilocks zone for risk assets.
Strategic Outlook: The bull case is intact but don't chase here. Two major liquidity cycles are peaking (65-month...
Sentiment: Fear & Greed at 57 shows post-shakeout recovery, not mania. Institutional FOMO (70/100) is strong through ETF accumulation but measured. Retail FOMO (55/100) is nervous despite ATH headlines. On-chain euphoria scores just 35/100—this is mid-cycle, not late-stage delirium. Overall 72/100 captures the mood: professional accumulation, not degen pileup. Implied vol at 38 looks cheap. Asia/offshore is driving marginal flows while US institutions grind through ETFs—slower burn, more durable.
